Economic analysis for transmission operation and planning
Zhou, Qun (2011) Economic analysis for transmission operation and planning. PhD thesis, Iowa State University.
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Restructuring of the electric power industry has caused dramatic changes in the use of transmission system. The increasing congestion conditions as well as the necessity of integrating renewable energy introduce new challenges and uncertainties to transmission operation and planning. Accurate short-term congestion forecasting facilitates market traders in bidding and trading activities. Cost sharing and recovery issue is a major impediment for long-term transmission investment to integrate renewable energy. In this research, a new short-term forecasting algorithm is proposed for predicting congestion, LMPs, and other power system variables based on the concept of system patterns. The advantage of this algorithm relative to standard statistical forecasting methods is that structural aspects underlying power market operations are exploited to reduce the forecasting error. The advantage relative to previously proposed structural forecasting methods is that data requirements are substantially reduced. Forecasting results based on a NYISO case study demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed algorithm. Moreover, a negotiation methodology is developed to guide transmission investment for integrating renewable energy. Built on Nash Bargaining theory, the negotiation of investment plans and payment rate can proceed between renewable generation and transmission companies for cost sharing and recovery. The proposed approach is applied to Garver’s six bus system. The numerical results demonstrate fairness and efficiency of the approach, and hence can be used as guidelines for renewable energy investors. The results also shed light on policy-making of renewable energy subsidies.
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